As I was sitting there watching the East, South, and Midwest brackets being announced…it became clear that UCLA was going to get a great draw. Once the entire region was declared, I was elated. Let’s take a look at the Bruins “dream” path to the Final Four. Lets first make it clear that in no way does this mean UCLA makes it, because as we all know, anything can happen in a sudden death tournament. However, it could not have been laid out any better on paper.
I am going to break this down into two parts that make the West region the “dream” path:
1. Matchups - Basketball, perhaps more than in any other sport, is based on matchups (case in point - Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks last year in the Western Conference playoffs).
2. Overall strength and talent of the teams in the West Region relative to teams in the other regions with the same seeding.
1. Matchups. Let us go over what gives this UCLA team problems:
- Dribble penetration - Perhaps the biggest weakness. A point guard who can penetrate causes a lot of problems (see DJ Augustine and even Justin Dentmon). Athletic wings who can shoot and also dribble drive (see Davon Jefferson). Bigs who face up to the basket and are mobile - Kevin Love’s biggest weakness is his lateral movement (see Marty Leunen, Jamal Boykin, etc).
- A team with a combination of size, athleticism and discipline. If an opponent has only one or the other, UCLA will probably win unless they have an extremely off day. The Bruins defense is going to be shocking to most of the teams in the country that play them for the first time. UCLA is a very, very athletic team, and that is a facet of this team that is still underrated (most people point to Memphis, Tennessee, etc). UCLA is also a very discipline team with a lot of offensive sets, fundamental defense, great coaching, and balance. Thus, an opponent that is only athletic will be matched by UCLA’s athleticism but will not be discipline enough to grind it out with them (Arizona is a perfect example). An opponent that is discipline but lacking athleticism will be overwhelmed by UCLA’s athleticism (Wazzu, Stanford - just ask Mitch Johnson).
So, teams that have these ingredients that would give UCLA trouble potentially include:
- Kansas - the toughest matchup for UCLA. The earliest UCLA would see them is in the championship game. Bill Self sucks, so they could lose along the way.
- North Carolina - not as scary as some would think, but I’d rather play Memphis in the Final 4 if UCLA makes it.
- Louisville - in the East, UCLA will likely not face them
- Georgetown - Big man in Hibbert and above average athleticism.
- Tennessee - frenetic team that is dangerous. Inexplicably, they are in the same region as UNC and Louisville.
- Clemson - experienced and very athletic
- Texas - would only see them in Final 4 and they have to beat Memphis.
So, guess what. NONE OF THESE TEAMS ARE IN THE WEST REGION. Another great thing is that the most likely teams that UCLA would face in the Elite 8 and Final 4 (Memphis, Texas, Duke, Xavier) are not even close to being as scary as the other half of the bracket (UNC, Kansas, Louisville, Georgetown, Tennessee).
2. Overall Strength of Teams in our Region:
#2 seed: Duke - the weakest of the #2’s. They have no big man and have too many white guys. Other 2’s include Georgetown, Tennessee, and Texas. Duke is by far the worst #2 seed. Yes!! I love the selection committee.
#3 seed: Xavier - Lost in A10 tourney, lost to ASU by 20. Probably also the worst 3 seed in the tourney. Other 3’s include Louisville, Wisconsin (who I wanted to be our 2 seed), and Stanford. Did I mention I love the selection committee???!!!
#4 seed: UCONN - Could be challenging because of Price and Thabeet and are perhaps UCLA’s biggest matchup of the 4 seeds (Pitt, Wazzu, Vandy). But they are very inconsistent.
#5 seed: Drake - Admittedly I know nothing about them. But I do know I wouldnt want to face Mich St again, Clemson, or Notre Dame.
I can go further in comparing the lower seeds to other regions but I think you get the point. Pound for pound, this is the weakest region by far. Again, this doesn’t mean the Bruins are going to be a lock to San Antonio. But the point is, it could not have been laid out any better. Ben Howland needs to send the selection committee some See’s Candy.
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